Markets are fascinating to track over the decades.
Any market. Take the used tractor market. 20 years ago in 2003 up through May 17th the highest auction sale price on any tractor was $142,000…on a 2001 CaseIH STX440 Quad Trac with 855 hours sold on a dealer auction 4/29/03 in Mason City, IA.
$142,000 the Highest tractor price at auction…makes 2003 seem like way longer than 20 years ago, doesn’t it.
HIGHEST TRACTOR AUCTION PRICES JAN. - MAY 17, 2003
10 years ago, in 2013, little did we know, but as Spring rolled around we were right on the precipice of times turning from very good to very challenging in ag country. Highest auction sale price on a Tractor from Jan. 1, 2013 to May 17, 2013 had just about doubled ($282,500) vs 10 years prior. Here’s a look.
HIGHEST TRACTOR AUCTION PRICES JAN. - MAY 17, 2013
The next 5 years in ag country were very tight. Profits hard to ring up. So perhaps not surprising that 5 years down the road from the heady days of early 2013 used tractor values really hadn’t changed much at all. Jan. 1, 2018 through May 17, 2018 the highest auction price on any tractor was $329,000, but note in our Machinery Pete price data chart below there was only 1 tractor sold above $270K at auction.
HIGHEST TRACTOR AUCTION PRICES JAN. 1 - MAY 17, 2018
Ok, you know where this is going. Yes, the past 2 1/2 years in the used tractor market have been incredible. To say its been the HOTTEST market ever, doesn’t begin to do it justice. We all know it. Supply of New been pinched in, while at same time supply of used tractors on dealer lots hit all time historic LOWS never before seen or imagined. So again, not surprising to look at the highest tractor auction sale prices so far here in 2023 and…wow, $625,000. Nearly double the highest auction price on a tractor 5 years earlier in 2018.
HIGHEST TRACTOR AUCTION PRICES JAN. 1 - MAY 17, 2023
Here’s pic of that $625,000 tractor at auction, a 2021 JD 9620RX with 450 hours on a 1/28/23 consignment auction in Paris, MO.
Highest auction price 20 years ago - $142,000. Today - $625,000. But hardly any jump during a 5 year stretch from 2013 - 2018.
Bottom line…Markets are how they are, until they aren’t.
As humans our view becomes so easily clouded by the here and now + the recent past. Recency Bias was the scientists call it. Truth. Like we’re all wearing blinders. The housing market is a SURE thing. Why? Because home values have always risen. Except when they didn’t (see 2007 - 2015). As farmers and folks in the ag space you of course know what can and has happened with farm land values over the decades. Stock market…when I hear “experts” say things like a sure thing values will rise because they’ve been rising, or sure thing values will continue to drop because they’ve been dropping. Nope, sorry.
Markets are how they are, until they aren’t.
The trick of course is finding the most reliable, trusted, accurate fresh data to let you a bit before everyone else that values are changing…UP like the last 2 1/2 years…or DOWN like Summer 2014 - 2018. Keep tabs on hard cash auction sale prices on all types of farm and construction equipment, for free, updated daily: www.MachineryPete.com/auction_results
Pete
Machinery Pete